WeatherWatch CEO Phil Duncan joins Dom to discuss the official end of El Niño and the subsequent changes in weather patterns.
As El Niño fades, he says not to expect immediate changes in the climate, likening the shift to a "giant shipping container...turning around slowly."
Duncan stresses that the transition to a post-El Niño environment will bring gradual changes, with more rain events creeping into New Zealand, although a significant shift from established weather patterns won't occur overnight.
A key point of the conversation revolves around the unpredictable nature of neutral weather conditions that follow El Niño.
Duncan describes these conditions as "chaotic," akin to a car in neutral, where "you don't really know what's coming up." This unpredictability can result in a variety of weather extremes, from tropical northerlies to southerlies, making it an exciting yet challenging time for weather forecasters.
He also touches on the potential return of La Niña later in the year, with Duncan emphasising the importance of not getting too caught up in long-range forecasts. He critiques the media and some forecasters for hyping up predictions, pointing out past inaccuracies and the dangers of connecting dots too early.
"Don't get too carried away by these stories about what might happen eight months from now. We can't see one month from now."
George and Duncan address the human aspect of weather events, particularly the frustration with attention-seeking behaviour during extreme weather situations. The focus is on the contrast between the severe storms hitting New Zealand and the local perception of these events as "just another normal day."
This discrepancy highlights the tension between the lived experiences of the locals and the sensationalist tendencies in reporting on weather crises.
The conversation provides an insightful look into the complexities of weather forecasting post-El Niño and human reactions to extreme weather, while also offering a critical perspective on media portrayal of climate events.
Listen to the full chat between Phil Duncan and Dominic George above.
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