So, this Curia poll on who should be defining what the Treaty of Waitangi Principles really are, is just what the doctor ordered.
And I don't mean Dr Don Brash, who initiated the poll via his Hobson's Pledge movement.
I mean David Seymour. He even said to me recently he knows his bill will not pass in Parliament, but the issue won’t go away he reckons, and the polls will pick up on this and show the level of support there really is for this to be sorted once and for all.
So don’t be surprised this poll has been done and we shouldn't be surprised by the results, which clearly show New Zealanders think this should be sorted out firstly via a referendum in front of NZ or by Parliament on behalf of the people.
Of course, Parliament and the majority have had the least input into what the principles of the treaty should be. The ones with the most input, the courts and the Waitangi Tribunal, languish in this poll as the least preferred bodies that should be deciding what the principles of the Treaty are.
It’s part of a much wider and organised plan and it's simply naive to think Seymour, Brash, Act and Hobson's Pledge haven’t discussed a plan going forward.
Anyway, there’s nothing illegal about cooperating but I'm just saying there is more going on behind the scenes than just a mere hīkoi and parliamentary debate.
In fact, in many ways the hīkoi was crucial to Brash and to Seymour as it led the news for days as other New Zealanders went to work and it wasn't front and centre in people’s minds…
How Chris Luxon didn’t see that happening is beyond me. Or did he see it happening and was quite comfortable allowing this debate to take place. Makes you wonder.
Although he did say there is nothing in the bill at all that he likes. Really?
Anyway, the poll picks up the many, many New Zealanders who perhaps were not on the march and and have not had their say.
But now they have spoken and they have said overwhelmingly that the treaty bill should be put in front of the people and see what all New Zealanders have to say about it by way of a vote.
That would truly shake the system up and I predict New Zealanders would vote for it to pass.
Now a referendum rests with Chris Luxon - will he let it happen?
He has said the bill won't pass in Parliament.
He’s probably keen to avoid it given the size of the hīkoi, but if his refusal starts to impact him in the polls, Luxon could easily tug on the treaty card and agree to a referendum as a way of climbing back up the polls.
Anything could happen. There is still so much time to play out on this one.
And Seymour's ultimate aim has always been a referendum in front of the country which Luxon, so far, has not agreed to
But Brash is now involved. The poll is out. It's clear Seymour and Brash have the same agenda.
And the pressure can only increase on Luxon from here.
Māori would react strongly against a referendum as they have much to lose.. But pākehā NZ I think would vote for change and vote to have a say on the treaty principles...
Luxon is now caught up in a potentially messy race war and treaty debate he would have done well to avoid… But the genie is out of the bottle now and Luxon may have difficulty putting it back in.
Sure, the bill will die in Parliament in 6 months, but Brash and Seymour aim to keep this front and centre and get New Zealanders so engaged in it that Luxon has to bow to pressure…
Seymour certainly shows no sign of going away. He’s run campaigns before, his polling is up, National’s is down... It’s playing out just as he thought.
Luxon should be nervous - real nervous. He’ll be hoping this disappears from public view. Seymour's job is to keep the issue alive, and so far he has done well on that front - even if some of the credit must go to Te Pati Māori and 40,000 others who marched on Parliament.
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